After two hot years driven by e-commerce and disruption in sea freight, the air-cargo market in 2025 is slowing as supply and demand gradually normalize, belly-capacity (passenger-aircraft freight space) recovers and trade policies fluctuate. For Vietnamese companies exporting high-value goods, this is the time to re-calculate the “sea-air mix” to optimize cost, time and shipment certainty.
Airlines and analysts have lowered growth expectations after the 2023-24 “bull run”, as demand is held back by inflation, tariff changes and cautious consumer sentiment. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the growth momentum for air-cargo volumes decelerated in Q1 2025; on the supply side, belly-capacity continues to widen as passenger networks recover, thereby pushing back the “tight-space” environment seen in previous years.
From a market viewpoint, Xeneta forecasts global air-cargo volume growth in 2025 at around 4-6 %, roughly matching or only marginally above capacity growth (estimated 3-5 %). This scenario means the market will be less tight, increasing the negotiating power of shippers—especially on routes where passenger travel has already recovered.
A notable variable is the “de minimis” and tax policy for low-value parcels imported into the US—previously a major driver of the e-commerce-fueled air-cargo surge. With some preferential treatment being tightened, e-commerce flows China→US have dropped sharply, forcing airlines and retailers to re-route, or even redirect part of the volume to sea freight; this in turn eases pressure on trans-Pacific air-cargo capacity.
When considering a sea-air mix, shippers should examine three axes: price, time and risk.
(1) Price threshold: if sea-freight rates spike due to a geopolitical event, the air component of the mix may be expanded temporarily.
(2) Time threshold: for seasonal fashion, new-launch electronics, pharmaceuticals with cold-chain needs, sea-air can “cut half the leg” of sea journey while still being cheaper than full air.
(3) Risk threshold: when ocean-freight schedules are uncertain, using air for last-leg protection can preserve delivery commitments.
With supply growing faster than demand, average air-freight rates and yields (revenue per tonne-kilometre) are under pressure—especially on Asia–US routes which are highly sensitive to retail cycles. Nonetheless, the market still sees “local jumps”: e.g., tension in the Red Sea / Suez Canal can cause some freight to revert to air on certain routes when ocean chains detour or vessel schedules are disrupted. This creates short-term “hot spots” in pricing on a weekly/regional basis, forcing shippers to monitor booking windows closely.
Choose a reliable transit hub: hubs such as Doha (DOH), Incheon (ICN) and Hong Kong (HKG) currently have high flight frequencies and strong connectivity with ASEAN and North America/Europe. Routing via a stable hub helps control bottlenecks, especially when the sea route faces geopolitical risk or channel restrictions. For high-tech / fast-fashion goods, you can ship by sea to an Asian hub — then by air to America/Europe in periods of market “spike”.
After the “bull run”, air cargo in 2025 is cooling but not “freezing”: demand remains modestly positive, while capacity is sometimes expanding, sometimes tightening depending on aircraft-delivery schedules and policy. Vietnamese exporters should build their own sea-air “playbook” for each product group, updated quarterly based on yield, seasonal demand windows and sea-route risk — so they decide based on data: price threshold, time threshold, risk threshold. When air is used as a strategic lever (at the right time, for the right SKU, via the right hub), the supply-chain becomes both flexible to disruption and protective of margin in the new “normal” era of global logistics.
Source: collect
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